Amol Rajan: Halfonomics is the Tories’ best chance of winning

Britain is becoming an ungovernable country. David Cameron, with no money or majority, is in three coalitions
Talks: David Cameron
27 March 2014
WEST END FINAL

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Once upon a time in a land far, far away, Conservatives were the party of the proles. Today, however, their support among young, poor, northern and non-white voters is dismal. The reasons for this are several and sometimes dubious; but the fact that modern British conservatism appeals to yesterday’s Britain rather than tomorrow’s is not in doubt. Let’s look at the evidence, the causes and a solution.

Among the over-60s, Tories lead Labour 41 per cent to 31 per cent. In every other age group they trail. In the 18-24, 25-39 and 40-59 age ranges, voters favour Labour by margins of 40 to 28, 41 to 34 and 40 to 34 respectively.

In a 2012 poll for the Policy Exchange think-tank, 64 per cent of respondents agreed that Conservatives look after the interests of the rich and powerful, not ordinary people. In 1951, Tories won five out of nine seats in Liverpool, then a crucible of conservative thought and practice. Today, in huge cities such as Leeds, Bradford, Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield and Newcastle, there is not a single Tory councillor.

As for ethnic minorities, only 16 per cent of non-white voters backed the Tories at the last election, as against 68 per cent who voted Labour.

Why might Tories struggle within these demographic groups? The collapse of a religious divide in which Catholics voted Labour and Protestants voted Tory, the brutal toll exacted by Thatcherism and the capture of the Conservative Party by a clique of very privileged young men with almost zero professional experience outside politics all played a part. The more urgent question is one Lenin asked: what is to be done?

Over the past few years, two thinkers have started to outline a coherent Tory offer to these groups. One is the impressive David Skelton, whose Renewal group provided many of the above statistics. The other is Robert Halfon, MP for Harlow. For want of a better term, I shall call their emerging plans Halfonomics.

Halfonomics remorselessly prioritises the needs of the poor. As a result, it is more likely to appeal to the young, northern and non-white.

Halfon — part of the Exeter University mafia that includes Tim Montgomerie and MPs Sajid Javid and David Burrowes — has championed a further rise in the income tax threshold, a freeze in fuel tax, the restoration of the 10p tax band, a living wage and a rise in the threshold for national insurance contributions. He’s won on the first two but had limited success on the others.

Instead, the headlines post-Budget have been dominated by a pretty liberal reform of pensions, and potential changes to inheritance tax, which is paid by around six per cent of us. Both target the grey, Tory vote.

Britain is becoming an ungovernable country. Already David Cameron, with no money and no majority, is in three coalitions, with Lib-Dems, Labour-voting Scotland and the Ukip tendency within his ranks. Without boundary changes, he desperately needs to reach out to get a majority. Instead, he is energising his base, a strategy that, as Clinton strategist James Carville put it, always ends up in the toilet. Whatever this week’s polls say, Halfonomics is the best route out.

Amol Rajan is editor of The Independent. Twitter: @amolrajan

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