Matthew d'Ancona: This deal with the DUP could seriously hurt the Tory brand

The Prime Minister’s determination to stay in power could undo years of trying to modernise her party
DUP leader Arlene Foster and members of the party in Downing Street
Matthew d'Ancona28 June 2017
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A perilous delusion is gaining ground in the Conservative tribe, the essence of which is as follows: the election result was indeed a disaster, and one from which lessons must be learned. But the national interest would be so badly damaged by a Labour Government under Jeremy Corbyn that all possible measures must be taken to avert that dire prospect.

The argument continues: Theresa May cannot possibly fight another election but she may be able to govern with reasonable effectiveness for a good while longer. She has brokered a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party which, if less than ideal and a bit pricey, at least ensures that financial bills are secure and that the Government will survive votes of confidence.

Warming to their theme, Tory MPs pursue the logic: Only a few weeks to go until the House of Commons rises on July 20. Let’s see what the lie of the land is in October when we meet at party conference in Manchester. Let’s give the old girl until Christmas. In fact, why not longer?

You get the idea. After their initial catatonic horror at the election result, an increasing number of Conservatives are persuading themselves that a pact with the DUP that keeps them in power and Corbyn out of Number 10 may not be so bad after all. Their logic is Mr Micawber’s: “Something will turn up”. The Labour leader’s cult of personality peaked at Glastonbury and will fizzle out; The Brexit talks will go better than planned; The pound will recover; Andy Murray will retain his Wimbledon title; A fifth season of Sherlock will be announced. Anything, really.

None of which alters the fact that this strategy in general, and the DUP deal specifically, constitutes the worst possible response to the Conservatives’ predicament. If Corbyn and his gang had been asked to dream up a Tory plan that would suit Labour’s purposes, it is hard to see how they could have come up with anything better.

First, and most obviously, the deal with the DUP threatens to undo in short order 20 years of stop-go “detoxification” of the Tory brand. The point is not that the 10 MPs from Northern Ireland will embark upon a successful crusade to roll back social liberalism on the mainland and abolish the Sixties. The peril is more specific: that their new intimacy with the Conservative Party will undo decades of effort — principally by David Cameron but also his predecessors — to present Toryism to a sceptical public as modern, compassionate and aligned with the contemporary world. That would be a reckless sacrifice to make, simply to hold on to office for a little longer.

Secondly, the Government’s declared commitment to continue the work of deficit reduction now looks like a matter of ideological choice rather than (as it is) economic necessity. Since 2010, senior Tories have talked of “tough choices” and “difficult decisions”. During the campaign, the PM struggled to explain why some nurses were allegedly using food banks. But she didn’t seem to find it so hard to stump up £1 billion to buy the support of the DUP.

This may appear to be a cheap point but it could prove an expensive one. The pressure upon the Government to shake the magic money tree for Scotland and Wales will grow appreciably. When a senior minister next announces a programme of savings, he or she will be scorned — and understandably so. If there is money to buy the votes of homophobes and creationists, surely there is money for more generous disability benefits or new school books?

After seven years of austerity, public support for deficit reduction has already been tested to the limit. At issue is not the scale of the DUP’s fee but the apparent nonchalance with which it was forked out. It is easy for ministers to say £1 billion is a price worth paying when it is other people’s money they are spending.

Third, the pact dramatises as perfectly as any Corbynista could hope the Conservative Party’s instinct to cling on to power at any cost. In itself, the Tory yearning for office is a strength: principles, however high-minded, are of scant use if they are not enacted.

In forming his Coalition with the Lib- Dems in 2010, Cameron was able to implement a centre-ground Conservative programme that would otherwise have amounted to no more than a set of shelved proposals. But there is a difference between a durable deal of this sort, rooted in common purpose, and an emergency pact to keep a grievously-injured government on life support a little longer.

This was never an agreement rooted in a dynamic vision for the nation —indeed, I gather that it might not have been reached at all without the discreet diplomacy of Lord Caine, one of the most quietly brilliant Westminster strategists, whose knowledge of Northern Ireland is formidable.

Fourth, and most important, is the question of dignity: an indispensable attribute of true statesmanship. Let us call it Woltz’s Law. In The Godfather, you may recall, the studio boss, Jack Woltz, browbeats the mafia consigliere, Tom Hagen, thus: “A man in my position can’t afford to be made to look ridiculous!”

A woman in the PM’s position cannot afford it either. We know how this movie ends, as it did in the last months of Jim Callaghan’s government and in 1996-7 as John Major scrambled for every last Commons vote. By choosing this path, the Conservative Party is mutilating what remains of its reputation and maximising the prospects of its foes. Desperation is not the same as tenacity.

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